The best guess we can say right now with no real evidence is "almost certainly more than 20 at this rate", based on how the story is going and because every main story update is followed by a month for Lily's sidequest and then another month for Haylen's sidequest after that. So if we are comparing it to Chapter 2... I feel like it would be more fair to say we are closer to Update 8 or 9, in terms of how the story feels right now.
I would actually be pretty surprised if the game is finished by the end of the year, because if we look at how things have been paced out so far with the development usually taking somewhere around 30-40 days... There would only be enough time left for two more main story updates between now and December.
Update 13 just came out this month — main story
14 in June — Lily sidequest
15 in August — Haylen sidequest
16 in September — main story
17 in October — Lily
18 in November — Haylen
19 in December — main story
I can't speak for Update 13 yet, but going by where 10 left off, it really doesn't feel like we are anywhere close to wrapping things up.
There is absolutely no way that this game will be finished before the end of 2024, NONE, the fact that each ending gets it's own Update alone makes this entirely impossible. We're gonna get 3, possibly even 4 endings for HC3 and N_Taii said that he's not gonna stick to the 1 Update in every 35 days rule and that he's gonna work on each Ending for as long as he needs to, but even if he DID release 1 Update in every 35 days, that would still mean that he would need to wrap up the story and tie everything together by Update15, so that he can add the first Ending in Update16 if he wants to finish the game by Update19.
There's also the fact that he's living in Japan right now and that last year he said that he plans on staying there for 1 year, now he said nothing about moving back so far, which is perfectly reasonable, it's none of our business after all, but if he DOES plan on moving back this year, then just like in last September, we're gonna have a month where N_Taii's gonna be too busy with moving to another continent to make any significant progress workwise, probably to the point where he's gonna pause payments on Patreon for the time being.
My BEST estimate is that we're not gonna see any of the endings before next summer and that's me being generous, and my only reason for thinking that is because Update7 was released in June 2023 and Update14 is going to be released in June 2024, meaning that we got 7 Updates in the last 12 months, so going by that logic Update21 is going to be released in May/June 2025.
Thanks for the breakdown! I figured it would be at least another year; I think I'll have to try playing it even if it means I'll need to wait for the story to trickle in from then on...
If you wanna play the game then i strongly recommend that you do it now, cause you're gonna be waiting for for a LOONG time if you plan on playing only once it's finished, not to mention that the game is probably going to be insanely long by the time it's done, and i also agree with what
swaglord said, that this game is much more enjoyable when you play it Update by Update.